How much inventory should you bring to a farmers market?

Write down four things after every market

A quantity plan is only as good as the record behind it. For each market day, keep:

• Date and market. A Wednesday evening market and a Saturday morning market are different shops. Keep them apart.
• Units sold per product. Count units, not dollars. Revenue moves with price changes and bundles; units are what you pack.
• Units brought. Without this you cannot tell a slow day from a sold-out one.
• What was unusual. Rain, a holiday, a road closure, a neighbouring event, a sell-out time.

Your point-of-sale report covers the first two for card sales. Units brought and notes usually live in a notebook or on your phone.

A worked example

One product, one market, the last three comparable Saturdays:

(12 + 15 + 18) ÷ 3 = 15 loaves, simple baseline

That average is a starting point, not an answer. Read the notes column before you trust it:

• Aug 22 sold out. Demand was at least 18, so the true average is probably above 15.
• Aug 8 was rained out for an hour. It may be lower than a normal day.
• Three days is thin. One more unusual day would move the average a lot.

A reasonable plan here might be to bring 18 to 20 and note the sell-out time again. That is your judgement call, informed by the record.

Build the baseline from comparable days

1. Filter to the same market and, ideally, the same season.
2. Drop or flag days you know were not normal (closures, storms, a one-off festival).
3. Average units sold per product across what remains.
4. Adjust by hand for what you know is coming: a holiday weekend, a new product beside an old one, a price change, less space in the van.
5. Write the planned number down before you pack, so you can compare afterwards.

Stockouts hide demand

Sales history only records what you had to sell. When a product sells out, the record shows what you brought, not what customers wanted. Averaging those days in as if they were normal pulls your plan down, which makes the next sell-out more likely.

Returns, refunds, comped items and days missing from your records distort the picture the same way. Keep a note when they happen.

Not enough history yet?

A first season or a brand-new market has nothing to average. No method, and no app, can produce a sales-based number without sales. Instead:

• Start conservative with what you can afford to carry home or sell elsewhere.
• Ask the market manager about foot traffic and what sells, and accept that their view is general.
• Record brought, sold and sell-out time from day one. After a few markets, you have a baseline.

Other vendor resources, such as Made in Iowa: How much inventory should you bring to a market?, discuss comparable events and sell-through from their own angle.

Review after every market

Five minutes at the end of the day: count what came home, note sell-out times, write down what was strange. That record is what makes next week’s number better.

Where StallSmart fits

StallSmart uses your imported sales to build a list per market. Each Bring List line shows the average sold on past days at that market, how many days it is based on, and a confidence level. If there is not enough history yet, it says so rather than guessing. You can always overrule the number. See StallSmart’s per-market Bring List.

Next: pack your market-day checklist, or prepare your sales history.